看国外 | 专家:非洲猪瘟将改变动物生产的面貌

看国外 2019-04-29 12:49:34

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ASF will continue to affect the supply of pork for the foreseeable future. Its impact on demand could create export opportunities for countries that stay free of the disease. (suthisa | Bigstock.com)

非洲猪瘟将会在可预见的未来继续影响猪肉供应。对猪肉的需求将为不受非瘟影响国家的出口业务制造机会。

Joe Kerns uses the EIC Forum to address African swine fever and how it will continue to impact the global meat market for as far any prediction may indicate.

Joe Kerns利用鸡蛋产业中心问题论坛(EIC Forum)讨论非洲猪瘟问题,并预测非瘟将如何继续影响全球肉类市场。

As countries continue to announce new outbreaks of African swine fever (ASF), the world's livestock industry sits in anticipation of what’s next and what it could mean for trade and production.

随着各国相继宣布非瘟新疫情,全球畜牧业都在预测接下来的进展及其对贸易和生产的影响。

“ASF is going to change the face of animal ag and the protein accretion industry for the rest of our lives,” said Joe Kerns, president at Kerns and Associates during the Egg Industry Center Issues Forum in Kansas City, Missouri, on April 16.

4月16日,在密苏里州堪萨斯城举行的鸡蛋产业中心问题论坛上,Kerns and Associates公司总裁Joe Kerns说:“往后,非瘟将改变动物生产和蛋白质供应行业的面貌。”

The per capita supply of the three major proteins in the U.S. are going sky high, he said.
他提到,就美国而言,三种主要氨基酸的人均供应量正在飙升。

“Global protein accretion is expected to continue to grow as well, however, our per capita consumption is at an absolute flat line,” he said.

“全球蛋白质供应预计也将继续增长,但是,我们的人均消费量处于绝对持平的水平。””
U.S. producers will have to export their way out of this current situation, he said. Pork exports are expected to grow 8%, broilers 3%, and beef 7%.

他说,美国生产商将不得不通过出口来摆脱目前的局面。猪肉出口预计将增长8%,肉鸡3%,牛肉7%。

Currently, all eyes are on China, he explained.

目前,所有的目光都集中在中国,他解释道。

“Are we focused too much on China?” Maybe, he said, but he explained that the reason everyone is so focused on China is because statistically they have been the largest meat producer and specifically the largest pork producer.

“我们是否过于关注中国?也许吧”,他说,但他解释说,每个人都如此关注中国的原因是,从统计数据上看,中国一直是最大的肉类生产国,尤其是最大的猪肉生产国。

Could ASF create US opportunity?

非瘟能给美国创造机会吗?

“If ASF is claiming roughly 40% of their herd on an annualized basis with no vaccine, no disease eradication opportunity whatsoever, it is largely impacting backyard farms and if backyard farms constitute about 50% of the Chinese production, are we going to get out of this anytime soon? No, this whole ASF thing has just left the gate, guys,” he said.

“如果非瘟按年度计算大约40%的猪群没有疫苗,没有任何疾病根除机会,它主要影响后院农场,如果后院农场占中国产量的50%左右,我们是否能够很快摆脱影响? 不,非瘟的影响刚刚开始,伙计们,“他说。

Kerns explained that with China’s ASF issues, no religious limitations on consumption practices, rising incomes, and a middle class that almost rivals the U.S. population in size – this could be an opportunity for U.S. exports to increase in China. But that’s not to say that other countries won’t try to seize on this opportunity.

Kerns解释说,由于中国发生的非瘟问题,加之没有宗教限制消费行为,且收入增加,中产阶级的规模几乎与美国人口相当,这可能是美国对中国出口增加的机会。但这并不是说其他国家不会试图抓住这个机会。

“U.S. exports (of pork) in the fourth quarter are projected to be up 35%,” he said. “Whatever countries can stay clean (avoid ASF), have an absolutely prosperous outlook from anything we have ever seen in history."

“美国预计第四季度猪肉出口将增长35%。“无论哪个国家,如果能够保持不受非瘟影响,从我们历史上所见来看,它们都拥有绝对繁荣的前景。”

Kerns also referenced reputable sources acknowledging that China’s decrease in protein would also impact the egg and dairy industries. He added that avian influenza will continue to affect poultry consumption in other countries, and potentially open doors for egg markets.

Kens还引用了一些著名的消息来源,承认中国蛋白质含量的下降也会影响鸡蛋和乳制品行业。他补充说,禽流感将继续影响其他国家的家禽消费,并可能为鸡蛋市场打开大门。

An improvement in the egg market might not be the first thing that comes to producers’ minds with they see news associated with ASF, however, Kerns said he believes it is going to happen. Producers will need to remain patient.

生产者看到非瘟相关新闻,可能首先不会想到鸡蛋市场的改善,然而,Kens说,他相信这将会发生,生产商需要保持耐心。

If ASF hits the US

假如非瘟侵袭美国

If ASF hits the U.S., it will be detrimental to the U.S. meat industry.

“We will have to lose 25% of our producers overnight,” he said.

Multiple leaders within the pork industry are working to put a plan into place should the U.S. get hit. Kerns said there is about a 3% chance of natural causes contaminating the U.S. with ASF.

If it happens, he said, everything about a rosy and prosperous pork market outlook goes out the window and suppliers will be impacted too.

“Everything about this scares the daylights out of me,” he said.

如果非瘟袭击美国,这将对美国肉类行业造成不利影响。

“我们将在一夜之间失去25%的生产商,”他说。

猪肉行业多位领导人正在努力制定一项计划,以防美国受到冲击。Kens说,非瘟有约3%的自然原因入侵美国。

他说,如果出现这种情况,猪肉市场前景乐观和繁荣的一切都将成为泡影,供应商也将受到影响。

“这一切都把我吓得魂飞魄散,”他说。

原文链接
https://www.wattagnet.com/articles/37494-expert-african-swine-fever-will-change-face-of-animal-ag

来源:WATTAgNet
作者:DEVEN KING

(文/爱猪网记者刘坤颖编译,爱猪网原创,转载请注明出处)


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